Prediction of Romeo Arcuschin vs Toby Alex Kodat at M15 Lima 12-02-25

• Could second serve performance be a decisive factor in this match? Toby Alex Kodat has greatly surpassed Romeo Arcuschin with a 46.79% win rate on second serve points compared to Romeo's 0% in recent months.
• Regarding return games, Toby Alex Kodat shows a strong advantage, winning 45.31% of opponent's second serve points, whereas Romeo Arcuschin hasn't secured any.
• First serve return performance further highlights Toby's edge with a 28.43% success rate against Romeo's consistent 0% performance in the last six months.
• How does pressure affect these players? Toby Alex Kodat displays greater resilience by saving 53.96% of breakpoints, contrasting starkly with Romeo's 0%.
• In terms of match victories over the past year: Romeo Arcuschin claims a higher win percentage at 75% (3/1), but Toby Alex Kodat has a larger sample size with a 53.85% win rate (21/18).
• Both players perform optimally on clay courts, each maintaining a 50% win rate on their best surface.
• Are differences in tournament level significant? Romeo Arcuschin has dominated at the Futures/ITF $10K level (100%), whereas Toby Alex Kodat competes mostly at the higher Challengers/ITF > $10K level with a 63.64% win rate.
• What does opponent quality tell us? Romeo's average opponent rank is 85.5, significantly higher than Toby's opponents averaging a 375.41 rank, indicating tougher competition for Romeo.
• Toby Alex Kodat's 50% win rate in deciding sets over the past year gives him an additional advantage if the match extends to a final set, compared to Romeo's 0%.
• For converting break points, Toby shows proficiency at 39.24%, in stark contrast to Romeo's consistent inability to convert any breakpoints in recent matches.

Editorial Prediction (December 2, 2025, UTC):

In the upcoming tennis match, Toby Alex Kodat appears to hold numerous advantages over Romeo Arcuschin based on recent performance statistics.

Toby's solid performance in second serve and return games, along with his ability to handle pressure situations better, suggests he is competent in crucial match moments.

While Toby’s recent performance shows scope for improvement in break point conversions, his current conversion rate remains significantly better than Romeo's.

Despite Romeo's overall higher match win percentage and experience against tougher ranked opponents, Toby's greater level of competition at Challengers and higher win rates at critical match junctures place him as the likely favorite.

Given these details, Toby Alex Kodat is poised as the preferred winner for this match.